MD Baltimore County

Conference:	AE
Expected RPI:	298.0
Current RPI:	298
Expected SOS:	188
Current SOS:	188
Current Record:	7-23
Expected Record:	7-23
Current Conf Record:	6-12
Expected Conf Record:	6-12
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-13
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	4-6
Current OOC Record:	1-11
Expected OOC Record:	1-11
Expected OOC RPI:	333
Expected OOC SOS:	220

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
7-23	298.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for MD Baltimore County.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Pennsylvania (280.0)	Ivy	A	80-75	L	0%
11-14	Loyola MD (99.0)	MAAC	A	86-70	L	0%
11-20	Central Connecticut (200.0)	NEC	H	82-83	L	0%
11-26	Marquette (13.0)	BE	A	79-46	L	0%
11-29	Canisius (112.0)	MAAC	H	65-83	L	0%
12-1	Towson (157.0)	CAA	H	66-62	W	100%
12-4	George Mason (162.0)	CAA	A	74-63	L	0%
12-6	American (278.0)	Pat	H	70-73	L	0%
12-9	Norfolk St. (178.0)	MEAC	A	83-66	L	0%
12-12	Coppin St. (313.0)	MEAC	H	61-80	L	0%
12-22	DePaul (204.0)	BE	A	69-61	L	0%
12-29	Mount St. Mary's (121.0)	NEC	A	58-55	L	0%
1-2	Albany (130.0)	AE	A	65-48	L	0%
1-5	Maine (267.0)	AE	A	81-66	L	0%
1-9	New Hampshire (293.0)	AE	H	68-57	W	100%
1-12	Vermont (134.0)	AE	A	68-53	L	0%
1-16	Hartford (187.0)	AE	H	70-57	W	100%
1-23	Stony Brook (81.0)	AE	H	60-67	L	0%
1-26	Boston University (148.0)	AE	A	81-75	L	0%
1-30	Binghamton (336.0)	AE	A	58-61	W	100%
2-2	Maine (267.0)	AE	H	68-67	W	100%
2-6	Albany (130.0)	AE	H	56-79	L	0%
2-9	Vermont (134.0)	AE	H	55-67	L	0%
2-13	New Hampshire (293.0)	AE	A	92-86	L	0%
2-19	Stony Brook (81.0)	AE	A	83-39	L	0%
2-23	Boston University (148.0)	AE	H	59-68	L	0%
2-28	Hartford (187.0)	AE	A	68-56	L	0%
3-3	Binghamton (336.0)	AE	H	59-49	W	100%
3-9	Hartford (187.0)	AE	N	62-69	W	100%
3-10	Vermont (134.0)	AE	N	85-72	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

MD Baltimore County's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

MD Baltimore County's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against MD Baltimore County.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
MD Baltimore County	AE	26.48	26.48	20.77	20.77	-15.48	-15.48
Vermont	AE	6.00	6.00	62.07	62.07	1.45	1.45
Hartford	AE	5.88	5.88	59.26	59.26	1.09	1.09
Albany	AE	4.45	4.45	68.75	68.75	1.67	1.67
Stony Brook	AE	4.35	4.35	75.00	75.00	2.18	2.18
Binghamton	AE	4.35	4.35	7.41	7.41	-3.70	-3.70
New Hampshire	AE	4.32	4.32	26.92	26.92	-1.99	-1.99
Boston University	AE	4.27	4.27	55.56	55.56	0.47	0.47
Maine	AE	4.26	4.26	33.33	33.33	-1.42	-1.42
Loyola MD	MAAC	1.93	1.93	64.52	64.52	0.56	0.56
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	1.92	1.92	54.84	54.84	0.19	0.19
Canisius	MAAC	1.91	1.91	56.67	56.67	0.25	0.25
Central Connecticut	NEC	1.86	1.86	41.38	41.38	-0.32	-0.32
Towson	CAA	1.85	1.85	58.62	58.62	0.32	0.32
George Mason	CAA	1.78	1.78	54.84	54.84	0.17	0.17
Coppin St.	MEAC	1.77	1.77	20.00	20.00	-1.06	-1.06
Norfolk St.	MEAC	1.75	1.75	64.52	64.52	0.51	0.51
Pennsylvania	Ivy	1.72	1.72	26.67	26.67	-0.80	-0.80
DePaul	BE	1.69	1.69	32.26	32.26	-0.60	-0.60
American	Pat	1.69	1.69	31.03	31.03	-0.64	-0.64
Marquette	BE	1.69	1.69	73.33	73.33	0.79	0.79
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.46	0.46	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.33	0.33	62.50	62.50	0.08	0.08
Brown	Ivy	0.31	0.31	44.44	44.44	-0.03	-0.03
Marist	MAAC	0.30	0.30	32.26	32.26	-0.11	-0.11
Siena	MAAC	0.29	0.29	25.00	25.00	-0.15	-0.15
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.28	0.28	30.00	30.00	-0.11	-0.11
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.28	0.28	31.03	31.03	-0.10	-0.10
Colgate	Pat	0.28	0.28	34.38	34.38	-0.09	-0.09
Yale	Ivy	0.27	0.27	41.38	41.38	-0.05	-0.05
Connecticut	BE	0.27	0.27	66.67	66.67	0.09	0.09
Niagara	MAAC	0.27	0.27	59.38	59.38	0.05	0.05
Holy Cross	Pat	0.26	0.26	40.00	40.00	-0.05	-0.05
Cornell	Ivy	0.25	0.25	40.00	40.00	-0.05	-0.05
Bryant	NEC	0.25	0.25	63.33	63.33	0.07	0.07
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.25	0.25	29.63	29.63	-0.10	-0.10
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.24	0.24	22.58	22.58	-0.13	-0.13
Wagner	NEC	0.24	0.24	61.29	61.29	0.05	0.05
Fairfield	MAAC	0.24	0.24	55.88	55.88	0.03	0.03
Seton Hall	BE	0.22	0.22	45.45	45.45	-0.02	-0.02
Navy	Pat	0.21	0.21	23.33	23.33	-0.11	-0.11
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.21	0.21	40.00	40.00	-0.04	-0.04
Army	Pat	0.20	0.20	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.19	0.19	66.67	66.67	0.06	0.06
Manhattan	MAAC	0.19	0.19	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.17	0.17	20.69	20.69	-0.10	-0.10
Rider	MAAC	0.16	0.16	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.16	0.16	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.16	0.16	80.65	80.65	0.10	0.10
Drexel	CAA	0.16	0.16	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Iona	MAAC	0.16	0.16	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Rhode Island	A10	0.16	0.16	27.59	27.59	-0.07	-0.07
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.15	0.15	14.29	14.29	-0.11	-0.11
La Salle	A10	0.14	0.14	70.00	70.00	0.06	0.06
Monmouth	NEC	0.14	0.14	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
Rutgers	BE	0.14	0.14	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Arizona St.	P12	0.14	0.14	63.64	63.64	0.04	0.04
Hampton	MEAC	0.13	0.13	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.13	0.13	7.14	7.14	-0.11	-0.11
Pittsburgh	BE	0.13	0.13	75.00	75.00	0.07	0.07
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.11	0.11	42.31	42.31	-0.02	-0.02
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.11	0.11	17.24	17.24	-0.07	-0.07
Bucknell	Pat	0.11	0.11	84.38	84.38	0.07	0.07
Hofstra	CAA	0.11	0.11	19.35	19.35	-0.07	-0.07
James Madison	CAA	0.11	0.11	58.82	58.82	0.02	0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.11	0.11	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
William & Mary	CAA	0.11	0.11	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.11	0.11	74.29	74.29	0.05	0.05
Duquesne	A10	0.11	0.11	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
College of Charleston	SC	0.11	0.11	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Long Island	NEC	0.11	0.11	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.11	0.11	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.11	0.11	73.53	73.53	0.05	0.05
South Florida	BE	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.09	0.09	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.09	0.09	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.08	0.08	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
George Washington	A10	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Rice	CUSA	0.08	0.08	13.79	13.79	-0.06	-0.06
Lafayette	Pat	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.08	0.08	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
Georgia St.	CAA	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.08	0.08	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.08	0.08	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Columbia	Ivy	0.08	0.08	38.46	38.46	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Temple	A10	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Indiana	B10	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Old Dominion	CAA	0.08	0.08	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.08	0.08	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Washington	P12	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Belmont	OVC	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Florida St.	ACC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Butler	A10	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.05	67.86	67.86	0.02	0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.05	59.26	59.26	0.01	0.01
Southern California	P12	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Longwood	BSth	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.05	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
Providence	BE	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	10.00	10.00	-0.02	-0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Radford	BSth	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Memphis	CUSA	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
New Mexico	MWC	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
UC Riverside	BW	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02